What impact will Cooper Flagg have as a rookie?

The Cooper Flagg era in the NBA is officially underway. As expected, the highly touted rookie forward out of Duke was drafted No. 1 by the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night, and is considered by many to be among the best prospects of this millennium.

So what kind of production can we expect from him as a rookie?

First, we’ll look at how he fits with the Mavs’ roster as it is currently constructed. Then, we’ll do a quick historical dive into players with some similarities in terms of skill set. Finally, we’ll go over where Flagg should be taken in fantasy drafts this fall.

How Flagg fits with the Mavs

The Mavericks have a larger opportunity for a rookie forward than typically expected for a team with a winning culture. With Luka Doncic traded and Kyrie Irving injured (torn ACL), the Mavs have a team full of quality big men (Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington) and shooters (Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Max Christie) that lacks offense creators and scoring from the wing.

Flagg could therefore be called upon as a key part of the Mavs’ offense from Day 1, and should have the opportunity to earn as many minutes and handle the ball as much as he can from opening tip. Match that opportunity with Flagg’s talent, which ESPN NBA analyst Bobby Marks says would have allowed him to be productive in the NBA as a 16-year-old, and Flagg has a great opportunity to produce impact numbers right away

We will learn more about Flagg as the summer goes along, most notably what the Mavs roster will look like around him after free agency. And we will likely get to see Flagg play his first professional competition in the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.

All of this info will help shape our official projections for Flagg’s rookie season, which will go live in a few months.

But based on what Flagg showed us in college, we already have a pretty good idea of what might be expected of Flagg. They’re the expectations of an instant impact player in fantasy hoops.

Comparisons to other Duke greats

Similarities to Grant Hill

Like Hill, Flagg enters the NBA as a big wing with excellent size and the versatile skill set to contribute across the board on both offense and defense. Hill was a more mature prospect than Flagg, having played four years at Duke and entering the league as a 22-year old rookie. But Flagg’s numbers from his freshman season at Duke were very comparable with Hill’s senior season, so despite being much younger at 18, Flagg appears to be similarly ready to transition to the NBA game.

Similarities to Jayson Tatum

Tatum is another big wing with the size of a combo forward but the game of a perimeter player, but he is a bit more shooter and less natural playmaker than Hlll. Flagg, in many ways, splits the stylistic difference between his two Duke brethren. While not as natural a point forward as Hill, Flagg is a better creator and distributor than Tatum was when he entered the NBA. Similarly, while Flagg would need to develop to become the shooter that Tatum has become, Flagg is a better shooter coming out of Duke than either Hill or Tatum were.

Here is a comparison of each of these players’ final season at Duke:

And this chart shows the rookie numbers for Tatum and Flagg, with projections for Flagg’s rookie season based upon his numbers having a similar college-to-pro transition as his two predecessors:

Where Flagg should be taken in fantasy drafts

Flagg’s 3-point total projection above was modified, since it is unlikely in today’s game that his 3-point volume decreases when he joins the NBA. If anything, this may still be conservative for his 3-point rate, but on the whole these numbers are illustrative for the type of production might be expected of Flagg as a rookie.

These numbers support him being a top-40 fantasy option as a rookie.

In points leagues, these averages would rank Flagg No. 28. Among small forward-eligible players, that would slot him between Jaylen Brown and Franz Wagner.

In category leagues, Flagg’s projected combination of all-around production with good percentages and relatively low turnovers was good enough to get him into the top-25, slotted among small forwards between Kevin Durant (16th) and Jalen Williams (30th).

This would suggest he should also come off the board in the first four rounds of fantasy hoops drafts.