NBA Free Agency Rumors: Timberwolves will officially lose key player + latest on Lakers, Warriors

With the official start of NBA free agency just a little over 24 hours away, let’s dive into some of the latest rumors and reporting around what various players and teams will do when it opens.

Wolves say “hell NAW” to retaining key free agent

The most definitive update here is from the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have reached new agreements with both Naz Reid and Julius Randle over the last several days. However, the size of those contracts (four years and $125 million for Reid, and three years, $100 million for Randle) always meant that the Wolves would in all likelihood not be able to retain key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker without exceeding the second apron, which all-but-guaranteed NAW would be on his way out the door just from a sheer financial perspective.

And in the aftermath of Randle’s new deal being reported, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic — long the most plugged-in voice on the Wolves beat — reported what many already suspected to be true, that Alexander-Walker will have to seek a payday elsewhere:

Alexander-Walker was a beloved contributor to the Wolves’ back-to-back conference finals runs, but the new CBA and harsh apron penalties that came with it ensured that overqualified bench players like him will often quickly become an unaffordable luxury for their incumbent teams.

As of Sunday morning, veteran NBA insider Marc Stein described the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks as the “strongest contenders” to sign NAW away from Minnesota.

Did LeBron James just soft-launch a trade request?

LeBron James opting in to his $52.6 million player option with the Lakers for next season was always the expected outcome, but quotes from his agent, Rich Paul, to ESPN’s Shams Charania in the aftermath of the decision certainly left the door open for a lot of reads about his ultimate intentions (emphasis mine):

“LeBron wants to compete for a championship,” Paul told ESPN. “He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.

“We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count, and the Lakers understand that, are supportive and want what’s best for him.”

LeBron wants to win a title next year followed by a statement that implies the 40-year-old does not believe that is the intention the Lakers have for this season certainly says a lot. But if this is a trade demand, it’s one that Paul and LeBron are doing their best to make sure James doesn’t get fined for. Instead, those quotes paint the picture of a star trying to frame his time with the Lakers positively so they don’t take a reputational hit with his exodus, while also very much letting fans (and the team’s front office) know that he’d like to try and compete for a title elsewhere next year as he nears retirement.

Both the Lakers and James are incentivized to work together here. For the Lakers, LeBron looking to move in a trade might actually be doing them a huge favor even if that wasn’t his intent, as it would allow them to (at least in theory) get assets back for him rather than him just retiring and leaving Los Angeles with nothing. The moves required for them to reset around Luka Doncic were always going to be harder with LeBron making so much money, and his asking out could let them start to reset their books without having to ask him to take a paycut or use one of his final seasons as a pseudo gap year.

For James, opting in retains his no-trade clause, which gives him some power over his next destination in a league with limited cap space to add a salary of his size. However, his opting in also forces him to at least try to play nice with the Lakers so that both sides can extricate themselves from this partnership amicably rather than tarnishing both of their brands with an ugly trade demand saga. The team will want to maintain its rep for doing right by stars and thus probably won’t play hardball, but ultimately still does have the final say and don’t have to just send LeBron somewhere in exchange for bad money or negative asset value.

We’ll see how this all shakes out, but it appears James and the Lakers are headed for a separation. The only question remaining beyond The King’s (likely final) destination is simple: Who gets Bronny in the divorce?

The Lakers may be in for a bigger overhaul than expected

LeBron opting in wasn’t the only notable Lakers contractual news on the eve of free agency. Lakers forward and close friend of Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, opted out of his $15.4 million player option, allowing him to enter a free agency market where he’s seen as one of the top veteran targets. If Finney-Smith actually departs and James is sent elsewhere, that would be nearly $65 million worth of players from last year’s roster who are no longer with the team, a massive changeover.

The players the Lakers got back in any hypothetical James trade would make it so that the Lakers don’t simply free up that much cap space outright, but it could leave them in for a transition year around Luka… with their new star on the eve of extension eligibility on Aug. 2, so suffice to say this free agency will be an early test of their newest star partnership, and tell us a lot about how much of his future Doncic is willing to commit to Los Angeles while the team still has work to do to field a contender around him.

Latest on Jonathan Kuminga and the Warriors

In his story on Duncan Robinson’s free agency options, Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald was the latest to report that Miami has “some level of interest” in Warriors restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga. This comes on the heels for both Shams and Anthony Slater of The Athletic hinting this week that the Heat could be in pursuit of a sign-and-trade for the Warriors’ former lottery pick.

Golden State can obviously choose not to participate in any sign-and-trade to get Kuminga where he wants to go, and can match any offer given to him on a (dry) open market from a team that creates the cap space to give him one. But Kuminga could also call their bluff, take their $7.9 million qualifying offer for next season, and then pick his own team next summer in unrestricted free agency, so both sides have some degree of motivation to find a win-win here.

Elsewhere with the Warriors, 2022 champion Gary Payton II is said to be unlikely to return in free agency, with Monty Poole of NBC Sports reporting that a source told him it was “doubtful” Payton is back in Golden State.

“Golden State still likes him, and there’s still a chance he’s back,” another source said of the Warriors. “But they have a lot of moving parts as they work through the Jonathan Kuminga situation, so Gary could land elsewhere next season.”

Our own Joe Viray wrote for Golden State of Mind that this is an understandable update from the Warriors’ side due to Payton’s checkered recent health history:

Should Payton depart, the Warriors will miss his peskiness at the point of attack, athleticism unusual in a 6’3” frame, and his presence in the locker room. But the aforementioned injuries and inconsistency on the court — as well as the prioritization of Kuminga and other potential acquisitions — may push Payton out of the organization that has given him the best stretch of his professional career.

NBA free agency officially begins tomorrow, June 30 at 6 p.m. ET, when free agents are allowed to negotiate contracts with any teams around the league. Said contracts cannot officially be signed until July 6, however, giving players and teams several days to mull their best options as the musical chairs fill up and trade dominoes fall.